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yangyang71342's Question
Math
Posted 6 months ago
Incorrect calculation, should be 0.9936⋅0.9936⋅0.92≈ 0.9083
Suppose components A1, A2, B1, B2 and C1 operate independently in the system shown below. Assume that all the components in the system start operating at the same time and a component does not work again once it fails. The probability of functioning for each component is 0.92. The entire system works if A1 or A2 works, and B1 or B2 works, and C1 works. Find the probability that the entire system works. Show your reasoning.









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Answer from Sia
Posted 6 months ago
Solution by Steps
step 1
The probability that component A1 or A2 works is given by the formula: P(A1A2)=1P(A1c)P(A2c) P(A1 \cup A2) = 1 - P(A1^c) \cdot P(A2^c) . Since the probability of functioning for each component is 0.92, the probability of failure for each component is P(A1c)=P(A2c)=10.92=0.08 P(A1^c) = P(A2^c) = 1 - 0.92 = 0.08 . Thus, we have:
step 2
Calculating the probability that at least one of A1 or A2 works: P(A1A2)=1(0.080.08)=10.0064=0.9936 P(A1 \cup A2) = 1 - (0.08 \cdot 0.08) = 1 - 0.0064 = 0.9936
step 3
Similarly, the probability that component B1 or B2 works is calculated in the same way: P(B1B2)=1P(B1c)P(B2c)=1(0.080.08)=0.9936 P(B1 \cup B2) = 1 - P(B1^c) \cdot P(B2^c) = 1 - (0.08 \cdot 0.08) = 0.9936
step 4
The probability that component C1 works is simply P(C1)=0.92 P(C1) = 0.92
step 5
The entire system works if A1 or A2 works, and B1 or B2 works, and C1 works. Therefore, the overall probability is: P(System works)=P(A1A2)P(B1B2)P(C1)=0.99360.99360.92 P(\text{System works}) = P(A1 \cup A2) \cdot P(B1 \cup B2) \cdot P(C1) = 0.9936 \cdot 0.9936 \cdot 0.92
step 6
Calculating the final probability: P(System works)=0.99360.99360.920.846 P(\text{System works}) = 0.9936 \cdot 0.9936 \cdot 0.92 \approx 0.846
Answer
The probability that the entire system works is approximately 0.846
Key Concept
The concept of independent events and their probabilities in a system
Explanation
The answer is derived from calculating the probabilities of independent components working together to ensure the entire system functions. Each component's failure probability affects the overall system's reliability.

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